001
FXUS66 KSGX 010621
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
1121 PM PDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated light showers will continue for the coastal basin
this morning. More widespread moderate showers develop late this
evening into Sunday morning, becoming more scattered during the
day Sunday before tapering off Sunday afternoon and evening. Dry
and warmer for the remainder of the week with highs near to a few
degrees below normal each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

Satellite this afternoon depicts a broad region of clouds west of
northern Baja streaming through a branch of the subtropical jet
stream toward Socal. Radar is beginning to pick up on light rain
west of San Clemente Island, set to arrive at the coast during the
later afternoon hours, moving inland through the evening. High
resolution models now agree that tonight`s rainfall will be
widespread and light region-wide, perhaps more intermittent in the
high desert, with some brief pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall,
especially for coastal areas and for San Diego County. Widespread
rain turns into scattered showers and wrap up in the desert valleys
Sunday morning. Showers become increasingly more isolated through
the afternoon, tapering off for northern areas by Sunday evening,
leaving behind a few isolated showers in San Diego County through
Sunday night.

Rain totals for this system will generally be higher for southern
areas; SD County up to the mountains is expecting 0.75-1" of rain
with locally high end amounts above 1.5". Orange County and the
Inland Empire can expect 0.3-0.6" (more south and along foothills),
with slightly higher totals in adjacent mountains. The deserts can
generally expect 0.10-0.40" (more south) of generally light rain.
Given that the system is bringing along subtropical moisture, the
warm sector will bring snow levels above 10,000 feet tonight before
dropping back to 7,500-8,000 ft. A dusting is possible above 8,000
feet over the highest passes and peaks, otherwise, no snow is
expected for any mountain communities.

As the upper level trough passes to our north Sunday afternoon,
there will be a brief uptick in west/northwest winds over the
waters, mountain ridges and desert slopes, with gusts 25-40 mph,
weakening overnight into Monday.


As the storm exits the region, low temperatures will drop
Monday/Tuesday morning to the upper-40s inland, upper 30s in the
high desert and down into the low 30s and 20s in elevated mountain
valleys. Patchy frost is possible in the high desert.

Next week, a series of weak, fast-moving ridges and troughs will
keep temperatures fluctuating, though gradually increasing by late
week to the low to mid-80s regionwide for lower elevations. These
are near average temperatures inland but above average for coastal
areas. Generally expecting sunny skies with a few passing clouds
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
010600...OVC mid-high level clouds region-wide through Sunday
morning. Generally widespread -RA will continue to move northeast
across the region through Sunday morning, bringing intermittent MVFR
cigs/vis 1500-3000 ft MSL and 3-5 SM respectively through the
coastal basin. Localized SHRA embedded within the overall storm
along the coast and over the mtns may produce brief IFR conditions.
Little to know cig/vis reductions expected in the deserts with -
SHRA overnight.

-RA will become more SCT from west to east 15-18z Sun with mid-high
level clouds also clearing, bringing generally widespread VFR
conditions. ISO/SCT -SHRA will linger through Sunday evening in San
Diego County and in the mtns.

&&

.MARINE...
There is a 5% chance of isolated thunderstorms over the waters
Sunday morning. Westerly winds increase Sunday afternoon and evening
with gusts 20-25 kt. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the
outer coastal waters from 11AM - 9PM Sunday. Weaker winds expected
Monday, followed by more elevated onshore winds Tuesday afternoon
and evening, with gusts in the outer coastal waters potentially
exceeding 20 knots.

&&

.BEACHES...
Southwesterly swell (3 ft at 15 seconds from 200 degrees) will bring
elevated surf this weekend into Monday, with breaking wave heights 3
to 6 feet through Monday. While high tides will continue to wane
through the weekend, tides will remain just above 6 feet which could
still lead to local minor tidal overflow during high tides in areas
where breaking waves approach 5-6 feet, mostly on southwest facing
beaches Sun.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Waters
     from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 10 to
     60 nm out including San Clemente Island.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...Westerink
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...CSP

NWS San Diego (SGX) Office